The penultimate College Football Playoff Rankings for the 2024 season have been released by the selection committee ahead of conference championship weekend.
The Oregon Ducks, the only undefeated team in the country at 12-0, lead the rankings again this week. Oregon is followed by (2) Texas, (3) Penn State, (4) Notre Dame, and (5) Georgia.
Ohio State, which lost on the road at Michigan, 13-10, fell four spots to No. 6. Rounding out the Top 10 of the rankings are (7) Tennessee, (8) SMU, (9) Indiana, and (10) Boise State.
Alabama comes in at No. 11 in the penultimate rankings, which for now would have them in the playoff. Check out the full CFP Top 25 rankings below.
College Football Playoff Rankings
*Rankings released on Tuesday Dec. 3, 2024.
1. Oregon
2. Texas
3. Penn State
4. Notre Dame
5. Georgia
6. Ohio State
7. Tennessee
8. SMU
9. Indiana
10. Boise State
11. Alabama
12. Miami FL
13. Ole Miss
14. South Carolina
15. Arizona State
16. Iowa State
17. Clemson
18. BYU
19. Missouri
20. UNLV
21. Illinois
22. Syracuse
23. Colorado
24. Army
25. Memphis
Here is a look at what the 12-team College Football Playoff Bracket would look like based on tonight’s rankings:
Projected College Football Playoff Bracket based on Dec. 3 rankings. pic.twitter.com/PCyi6ybzNh
— FBSchedules.com (@FBSchedules) December 4, 2024
On Sunday, Dec. 8 at noon ET, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee will announce the 12-team playoff bracket and game sites via the Selection Day show on ESPN. The committee will also release their final set of Top 25 rankings, while the complete bowl schedule pairings will also be set.
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Open Questions for this weekend:
1) If SMU losses are they out or does the committee land them in Alabama’s spot (the last playoff spot)?
– coin flip, I can see the committee doing either. Will be interesting if the committee will treat my #3 question (P2 schools) differently from P4 conference champioship runner ups
2) Is there any scenario Boise state losses its 1st round bye if they win?
– Given UNLV’s ranking my gut says no, but if ASU wins big and Boise squeaks out a win there’s a possibility the committee bumps ASU ahead of Boise. Regardless if ISU wins, I see the committee putting them behind Boise. I would also believe based on the rankings Boise would be out if they lose.
3) If Georgia or Penn St lose, will the committee penalize them and remove them from hosting a 1st round game?
– Neither should be penalized but this will be interesting as a precedent will be set how the committee reflects top ranked teams losses (including SMU’s outcome if they were to lose) and again how P2 and P4 conference runner ups are treated if ranked going into the championshipgame.
1. Joel Klatt seems to think that Alabama would still be placed over an SMU due to better wins with a way tougher schedule. Seeing that Alabama is already over a 2-loss Miami team (that is pretty comparable to a potential 2-loss SMU team), he thinks that SMU would be out with a loss. I would agree, especially if it is ugly.
2. I think Boise State only loses its bye in the scenario that you outlined. And yes, they are definitely out with a UNLV win.
3. I don’t think they are penalized too much. Mayyyybeee Notre Dame leaps Penn State, but I don’t particularly see Ohio State going back over Georgia. Would be really interesting to see!
Using a Mason-Dixon format:
South:
Byes: Texas. Georgia
First round: Miami at Tennessee, Alabama at SMU
Rest of the nation:
Byes: Oregon, Penn State
First round: Boise State at Notre Dame, Indiana at Ohio State
A reminder that:
1. This format allows teams who didn’t win a conference championship to earn a first round bye. Here, Notre Dame can jump Penn State if the latter loses to Oregon in the B1G title game. Georgia could also slip into a first-round game if they lose to Texas in the SEC title game.
2. While a Group of Five champion must be included for fairness reasons, this format doesn’t guarantee all P4 champions make the cut. The Big 12 would be on the outside looking in right now. Them’s the breaks for a format that guarantees both sides of the Mason-Dixon Line will have an equal chance of producing the national champion.
Do you want gifts from Ohio State & Notre Dame for Christmas?
I would greatly appreciate it if you please stop doing this CFP in Mason-Dixon proposal to end right now to prevent more criticisms from other posts including me it is getting tiresome for everybody I am trying to protect you my friend.
Based on the teams currently projected to participate in the 2024-25 College Football Playoffs and how they have done so far this season, here is how the tournament could potentially play out:
– Ohio State beats Tennessee in the First Round, 26 to 23
– Penn State beats Arizona State in the First Round, 29 to 21
– Notre Dame beats Alabama in the First Round, 29 to 25
– Georgia beats Indiana in the First Round, 35 to 31
– Ohio State beats Oregon in the Quarterfinals, 26 to 23
– Penn State beats Boise State in the Quarterfinals, 31 to 24
– Notre Dame beats SMU in the Quarterfinals, 32 to 25
– Texas beats Georgia in the Quarterfinals, 28 to 22
– Ohio State beats Penn State in the Semifinals, 25 to 22
– Notre Dame beats Texas in the Semifinals, 26 to 24
– Notre Dame beats Ohio State in the CFP National Championship, 26 to 24
So, I essentially got similar results to last time but with Notre Dame beating Ohio State. It honestly doesn’t feel realistic, especially since the Fighting Irish have yet to defeat the Crimson Tide in the College Football Playoffs and I’m unsure if something like that will happen anytime soon. Something to note is that the prediction formula that I use only factors in average points scored and allowed per game as well as rating (using this website: http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm), which rarely allows for upsets to occur (ratings-wise, at least, not rankings). I originally created it only using the average points scored and allowed per game during the 2021-22 Arkansas Razorbacks football season and it was pretty accurate in terms of wins and losses (except for the Outback Bowl against Penn State and maybe one or two others), but scores were a bit wonky (especially against UAPB, but not so much against other Southeastern Conference teams). Can it be improved? I’m sure it could, but I don’t really have a good idea for how at the moment. Any suggestions/ideas?
Instead of Average Points allowed/scored, median could help with reducing some of the weighting of the outliers, or using something like the ratings calculated from something like the Sagarin to create a weighted average of points allowed/scored.
I can’t recall if Sagarin includes any additional calculation to factor when a team is an underdog and wins outright and vice versa as a favorite and losses but adding an additional condition to a school’s rating with their probability to win as underdog/lose as favorite could potentially help with the upsets factor.
As a Big Ten Fan I am pulling for Penn State.