2023 NFL Strength of Schedule rankings for all 32 teams have been calculated for the upcoming season, and a couple of different methods are available.
The first method, the winning percentage method, is not an exact science due to player trades, free agency, injuries, and the draft. This method is based solely on the combined record of a team’s opponents from the previous season.
Below are the strength of schedule rankings using the winning percentage method, which includes the combined opponent record and winning percentage from the 2022 season.
Winning Percentage Method
| Rank | Team | Opp. Record (2022) | Opp. Winning % (2022) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eagles | 161-123-4 | .566 |
| 2 | Dolphins | 158-127-2 | .554 |
| 3 | Patriots | 156-128-3 | .549 |
| T-4 | Cowboys | 156-128-4 | .549 |
| T-4 | Giants | 157-129-2 | .549 |
| 6 | Jets | 155-129-3 | .545 |
| 7 | Bills | 155-131-2 | .542 |
| 8 | Commanders | 153-133-2 | .535 |
| 9 | Rams | 152-133-3 | .533 |
| 10 | Raiders | 150-136-2 | .524 |
| 11 | Cardinals | 148-147-3 | .519 |
| T-12 | Chargers | 149-139 | .517 |
| T-12 | Broncos | 148-138-2 | .517 |
| T-12 | Seahawks | 148-138-2 | .517 |
| 15 | 49ers | 147-142-0 | .514 |
| 16 | Chiefs | 147-140 | .512 |
| 17 | Bengals | 146-140-2 | .510 |
| 18 | Bears | 143-145-1 | .497 |
| 19 | Vikings | 143-145 | .497 |
| 20 | Lions | 143-146 | .495 |
| 21 | Ravens | 138-147-2 | .484 |
| 22 | Buccaneers | 138-148-2 | .483 |
| 23 | Jaguars | 135-148-4 | .477 |
| 24 | Packers | 137-151-1 | .476 |
| 25 | Steelers | 134-151-2 | .470 |
| 26 | Browns | 131-154-2 | .460 |
| 27 | Panthers | 130-157-2 | .453 |
| 28 | Titans | 127-157-4 | .448 |
| 29 | Colts | 124-162-2 | .434 |
| 30 | Texans | 123-163-2 | .431 |
| 31 | Saints | 122-164-3 | .427 |
| 32 | Falcons | 119-167-3 | .417 |
The Philadelphia Eagles, who fell to Kansas City in Super Bowl LVII, have the toughest schedule in 2023 using the winning percentage method, just ahead of the Miami Dolphins. New England is third, followed by Dallas and the New York Giants in a tie for fourth, and the New York Jets in sixth.
The distance from first (Philadelphia) to sixth-place (NY Jets) is six games in the win column.
The Atlanta Falcons have the easiest schedule in 2023, according to the winning percentage method.
Sharp Football Analysis offers an alternative NFL strength of schedule ranking this season based on projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
Sharp uses 2023 projected win totals because this method is “…much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.” Below are their rankings using that method.
Projected Win Totals Method
| Rank | Team | Projected Win Total |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saints | 9.4 |
| 2 | Falcons | 7.4 |
| 3 | Panthers | 7.6 |
| 4 | Colts | 6.8 |
| 5 | Bears | 7.6 |
| 6 | Texans | 5.5 |
| 7 | Titans | 7.4 |
| 8 | Lions | 9.9 |
| 9 | Jaguars | 10.3 |
| 10 | 49ers | 11.3 |
| 11 | Steelers | 8.6 |
| 12 | Packers | 7.2 |
| 13 | Buccaneers | 6.5 |
| 14 | Browns | 9.3 |
| 15 | Bengals | 11.5 |
| 16 | Eagles | 10.9 |
| 17 | Seahawks | 8.5 |
| 18 | Rams | 7.6 |
| 19 | Giants | 8.4 |
| 20 | Broncos | 8.5 |
| 21 | Cardinals | 5.3 |
| 22 | Ravens | 8.9 |
| 23 | Cowboys | 9.7 |
| 24 | Vikings | 8.7 |
| 25 | Jets | 9.7 |
| 26 | Chargers | 9.7 |
| 27 | Commanders | 7.2 |
| 28 | Dolphins | 9.4 |
| 29 | Raiders | 7.2 |
| 30 | Chiefs | 11.5 |
| 31 | Bills | 10.8 |
| 32 | Patriots | 7.6 |
Using the Vegas win total method, the New England Patriots have the toughest schedule in 2023, while the New Orleans Saints have the easiest.
To compare, the Patriots have the toughest schedule using Vegas win totals, while they have the third-toughest slate using the winning percentage method. The New Orleans Saints, who are deemed to have the easiest schedule using Vegas win totals, are second-to-last using the winning percentage method.
The 2023 NFL Schedule kicks off on Thursday, May 11 with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Detroit Lions. The game will be televised by NBC at 8:20pm ET.
NFL Schedules