2024 NFL Strength of Schedule rankings for all 32 teams have been calculated for the upcoming season, and a couple of different methods are available.
The first method, the winning percentage method, is not an exact science due to player trades, free agency, injuries, and the draft. This method is based solely on the combined record of a team’s opponents from the previous season.
Below are the strength of schedule rankings using the winning percentage method, which includes the combined opponent record and winning percentage from the 2023 season. These rankings are listed from toughest (1) to easiest (T-31).
Winning Percentage Method
| Rank | Team | Opp. Record (2023) | Opp. Winning % (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Browns | 158-131 | .547 |
| 2 | Ravens | 155-134 | .536 |
| 3 | Steelers | 154-135 | .533 |
| T-4 | Texans | 152-137 | .526 |
| T-4 | Packers | 152-137 | .526 |
| T-6 | Giants | 149-140 | .516 |
| T-6 | Bills | 149-140 | .516 |
| T-8 | Jaguars | 148-141 | .512 |
| T-8 | Raiders | 148-141 | .512 |
| T-8 | Patriots | 148-141 | .512 |
| 11 | Lions | 147-142 | .509 |
| T-12 | Rams | 146-143 | .505 |
| T-12 | 49ers | 146-143 | .505 |
| T-12 | Cowboys | 146-143 | .505 |
| T-12 | Jets | 146-143 | .505 |
| T-16 | Bengals | 145-144 | .502 |
| T-16 | Commanders | 145-144 | .502 |
| T-16 | Vikings | 145-144 | .502 |
| T-16 | Chiefs | 145-144 | .502 |
| 20 | Broncos | 143-146 | .495 |
| T-21 | Colts | 142-147 | .491 |
| T-21 | Eagles | 142-147 | .491 |
| T-21 | Titans | 142-147 | .491 |
| T-24 | Cardinals | 141-148 | .488 |
| T-24 | Seahawks | 141-148 | .488 |
| T-24 | Dolphins | 141-148 | .488 |
| T-27 | Buccaneers | 138-151 | .478 |
| T-27 | Chargers | 138-151 | .478 |
| T-29 | Panthers | 135-154 | .467 |
| T-29 | Bears | 135-154 | .467 |
| T-31 | Saints | 131-158 | .453 |
| T-31 | Falcons | 131-158 | .453 |
The Cleveland Browns have the toughest schedule in 2024 using the winning percentage method, just ahead of the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Houston Texans and Green Bay Packers are tied for fourth, while the New York Giants and Buffalo Bills are tied for sixth.
The distance from first (Cleveland) to sixth-place (Giants and Bills) is nine games in the win column.
The Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints have the easiest schedule in 2024, according to the winning percentage method.
Sharp Football Analysis offers an alternative NFL strength of schedule ranking this season based on projected win totals from Vegas oddsmakers.
Sharp uses 2024 Vegas projected win totals because this method is “…much better than so many widely used metrics that use the previous season’s record.” Below are their rankings using that method, ranked from easiest (1) to toughest (32).
Projected Win Totals Method
| Rank | Team | Line | Over Odds | Implied Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Falcons | 9.5 | -140 | 9.8 |
| 2 | Chargers | 8.5 | -160 | 8.9 |
| 3 | Bears | 8.5 | -130 | 8.7 |
| 4 | Jets | 9.5 | -115 | 9.55 |
| 5 | Saints | 7.5 | -120 | 7.6 |
| 6 | Bengals | 10.5 | -120 | 10.6 |
| 7 | Colts | 8.5 | +110 | 8.3 |
| 8 | Dolphins | 9.5 | -145 | 9.85 |
| 9 | Eagles | 10.5 | +105 | 10.35 |
| 10 | Panthers | 4.5 | -135 | 4.75 |
| 11 | Buccaneers | 8.5 | +125 | 8.15 |
| 12 | Chiefs | 11.5 | -110 | 11.5 |
| 13 | Commanders | 6.5 | -120 | 6.6 |
| 14 | Jaguars | 8.5 | -125 | 8.65 |
| 15 | Seahawks | 7.5 | -110 | 7.5 |
| 16 | Cardinals | 6.5 | -120 | 6.6 |
| 17 | Rams | 8.5 | -110 | 8.5 |
| 18 | 49ers | 11.5 | +125 | 11.15 |
| 19 | Packers | 10.5 | +130 | 10.1 |
| 20 | Giants | 6.5 | +115 | 6.25 |
| 21 | Lions | 10.5 | -110 | 10.5 |
| 22 | Cowboys | 10.5 | +100 | 10.4 |
| 23 | Bills | 10.5 | -120 | 10.6 |
| 24 | Raiders | 6.5 | -135 | 6.75 |
| 25 | Broncos | 5.5 | -135 | 5.75 |
| 26 | Texans | 9.5 | -140 | 9.8 |
| 27 | Titans | 6.5 | +125 | 6.15 |
| 28 | Vikings | 6.5 | -135 | 6.75 |
| 29 | Ravens | 11.5 | +110 | 11.3 |
| 30 | Browns | 8.5 | -130 | 8.7 |
| 31 | Patriots | 4.5 | -150 | 4.87 |
| 32 | Steelers | 8.5 | -120 | 8.6 |
Using the Vegas win total method, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the toughest schedule in 2024, while the Atlanta Falcons have the easiest.
To compare, the Steelers have the toughest schedule using Vegas win totals, while they have the third-toughest slate using the winning percentage method. The Atlanta Falcons, who are deemed to have the easiest schedule using Vegas win totals, are tied for last using the winning percentage method.
The 2024 NFL Schedule kicks off on Thursday, May 5 with the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Baltimore Ravens. The game will be televised by NBC at 8:20pm ET.
The complete NFL schedule for the 2024 season is set for release on Wednesday, May 15 at 8:00pm ET.
NFL Schedules