The release of the Coaches Poll preseason Top 25 gives us a window into which programs will be ranked going into their first games. After that, it’s back to things being decided by the greatest form of reality TV – live sports with zero scripts.
The first official Top 25 also affords an opportunity to gauge schedule strength based on a new parameter – how many ranked opponents a team will play during its upcoming campaign. Even though so much is destined to change between now and December, the programs listed here have an exceptional number of hurdles to face before making good on any postseason visions of grandeur.
Of the 64 Power conference members, only 18 (or 28%) have five-plus preseason ranked opponents on their 2019 schedule. Of these, a whopping nine – or half – hail from the Big Ten, five are Pac-12 members and four come from the SEC. The ACC and Big 12 are not represented at all.
This breakdown makes a lot of sense based on how the Power leagues are represented in the Coaches Poll – seven Big Ten members (four from the East division and three from the West), six SEC schools (four from the West and two from the East), five from the Pac-12 (four from the North and one from the South), three Big 12 teams, two from the ACC (both from the Atlantic division), and one apiece from the Independents and the American Athletic.
Even though each of the teams listed here share a similar challenge, it’s far from an apples-to-apples comparison. This is because each individual member of the list is set to play a unique combination of opponents with a unique combination of rankings. In other words, playing No. 20 Michigan State can’t be treated as equal with playing No. 5 Ohio State.
Power Teams with Five Ranked Opponents (listed in order of average rank of opponents)
ILLINOIS (17.6): (7) Michigan, (17) Wisconsin, at (19) Iowa, at (20) Michigan State, (25) Northwestern
IOWA (17.4): at (7) Michigan, (14) Penn State, at (17) Wisconsin, at (24) Iowa State, at (25) Northwestern
COLORADO (16.8): (12) Washington, at (13) Oregon, at (15) Utah, at (21) Washington State, (23) Stanford
OREGON STATE (16.8): (12) Washington, at (13) Oregon, (15) Utah, at (21) Washington State, (23) Stanford
OHIO STATE (16.6): at (7) Michigan, (14) Penn State, (17) Wisconsin, (20) Michigan State, at (25) Northwestern
CALIFORNIA (16.4): at (12) Washington, at (13) Oregon, at (15) Utah, (21) Washington State, at (23) Stanford
WISCONSIN (15.2): at (5) Ohio State, (7) Michigan, (20) Michigan State, (19) Iowa, (25) Northwestern
USC (14.4): at (9) Notre Dame, at (12) Washington, (13) Oregon, (15) Utah, (23) Stanford
INDIANA (14.2): (5) Ohio State, (7) Michigan, at (14) Penn State, at (20) Michigan State, (25) Northwestern
MARYLAND (13.6): at (5) Ohio State, (7) Michigan, (14) Penn State, at (20) Michigan State, (22) Syracuse
MICHIGAN STATE (13.6): at (5) Ohio State, at (7) Michigan, (14) Penn State, at (17) Wisconsin, at (25) Northwestern
RUTGERS (13): (5) Ohio State, at (7) Michigan, at (14) Penn State, at (19) Iowa, (20) Michigan State
LSU (9.4): at (2) Alabama, (8) Florida, at (10) Texas, (11) Texas A&M, (16) Auburn
TEXAS A&M (5.6): at (1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, at (3) Georgia, at (6) LSU, (16) Auburn
SOUTH CAROLINA (5): (1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, at (3) Georgia, (8) Florida, at (11) Texas A&M
Power Teams with Six Ranked Opponents (listed in order of average rank of opponents)
STANFORD (16.2): (9) Notre Dame, (12) Washington, (13) Oregon, at (17) UCF, at (21) Washington State, (25) Northwestern
MICHIGAN (14): (5) Ohio State, (9) Notre Dame, at (14) Penn State, at (17) Wisconsin, (19) Iowa, (20) Michigan State
AUBURN (7): (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, at (6) LSU, at (8) Florida, at (11) Texas A&M, vs. (12) Oregon (in Arlington, Texas)
What stands out immediately is that while the Big Ten may trump the SEC on the number of ranked members it boasts going into 2019, and therefore the number of ranked opponents its teams will face, the SEC wins hands down in difficulty. Where the six ranked SEC teams boast an average rank of 7.6, the Big Ten’s average ranking is more than double that at 15.3. As for the five Pac-12 members, they come in at 16.8.
Most notable among the top tier of teams playing the most ranked opponents are Texas A&M and South Carolina, both who add (1) Clemson to their already fraught SEC slates. Given that the Gamecocks draw (2) Alabama as their rotating opponent from the West while the Aggies draw (3) Georgia from the East, both schools are currently set to face the TOP THREE teams in the nation in 2019.
Honorable mention goes to Auburn, which avoids (1) Clemson, but draws (8) Florida as its rotating opponent and picks up (12) Oregon in non-conference play.
To put things further into perspective, take a look at the number of ranked opponent’s other top contenders will play in 2019.
CLEMSON – 2: (11) Texas A&M, at (22) Syracuse
ALABAMA – 3: (6) LSU, at (11) Texas A&M, at (16) Auburn
GEORGIA – 4: vs. (8) Florida (at Jacksonville, Fla.), (9) Notre Dame, (11) Texas A&M, at (16) Auburn
OKLAHOMA – 2: vs. (10) Texas (at Dallas, Texas), (24) Iowa State
FLORIDA – 3: vs. (3) Georgia (at Jacksonville, Fla.), at (6) LSU, (16) Auburn
NOTRE DAME – 3: at (3) Georgia, at (7) Michigan, at (23) Stanford
TEXAS – 3: vs. (4) Oklahoma (at Dallas, Texas), (6) LSU and at (24) Iowa State
Finally, here are the Group of 5 teams set to play the most ranked action this season.
Group of 5 Teams playing Two Ranked Opponents (listed in order of average rank of opponents)
WESTERN MICHIGAN (21): at (20) Michigan State, at (22) Syracuse
TULSA (18.5): (17) UCF, at (20) Michigan State
USF (17): (17) Wisconsin, at (17) UCF
KENT STATE (16.5): at (16) Auburn, at (17) Wisconsin
TULANE (16.5): at (16) Auburn, (17) UCF
MIDDLE TENNESSEE (13): at (7) Michigan, at (19) Iowa
MIAMI OHIO (12): at (5) Ohio State, at (19) Iowa
FLORIDA ATLANTIC (11): at (5) Ohio State, (17) UCF
Group of 5 Team playing Three Ranked Opponents
HOUSTON (14): at (4) Oklahoma, at (17) UCF, vs. (21) Washington State (at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas)