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Notre Dame: Future Football Schedule Analysis

Notre Dame will play five ACC football games per season. (Matt Cashore-US PRESSWIRE)

On Wednesday, Notre Dame announced that they are joining the ACC in all sports except football, where the Irish will remain independent.

In order to exit the Big East, the Fighting Irish must pay the conference a $5 million exit fee and provide 27 months notice. That means Notre Dame would join the ACC for the 2015 season. However, they could negotiate an earlier exit similar to what Pittsburgh and Syracuse did earlier this year.

As part of their agreement to join the ACC, Notre Dame will play five football games against ACC members each season. They plan to begin that scheduling format in 2014.

The agreement with the ACC will significantly alter Notre Dame’s future football schedules. Currently, the ACC’s plan is to have Notre Dame play every school in the conference at least once every three years.

With the Irish already having future scheduling agreements with Boston College, Miami (FL), Pittsburgh, Syracuse, and Wake Forest, some of those games will remain while others may have to be shuffled.

Then there is Notre Dame’s preference to keep existing rivalries on their schedule, such as Navy, Michigan, Michigan State, Stanford, and USC.

Let’s take a look at each season and see what changes could occur:

2014

Notre Dame has 11 games scheduled in 2014, and two of those are against ACC teams Pittsburgh (home) and Syracuse (at East Rutherford, NJ). With only one opening on the schedule, two other games will have to be canceled or postponed in order to add three ACC games. Games that could be targeted for cancellation/postponement include Rice, at Temple, Purdue, and Northwestern.

This scenario is, of course, dependent on if Pittsburgh and Syracuse remain on the 2014 schedule.

Tentative 2014 schedule: Rice, Michigan, Purdue, Syracuse (at NJ), Stanford, at Temple, at Arizona State, ay Navy, Pittsburgh, Northwestern, at USC.

2015

Four ACC games are on the schedule in 2015: vs. Wake Forest (Nov. 7), at Pittsburgh (Nov. 14), vs. Syracuse (Nov. 21), and at Boston College (date TBA). If those four remain, Notre Dame will only need one more ACC game. Their are currently 11 games on the schedule, so adding one ACC team could be the only move for the 2015 schedule.

The only possible issue is that Pittsburgh and Syracuse could play Notre Dame in 2014. In order for Notre Dame to play each ACC opponent every three years, the Irish can only play one school in back-to-back seasons.

Notre Dame opens the 2015 season at home against Texas in the first game of their four-game, home-and-home series. Texas opens again at Notre Dame in 2020, while the Irish visit Austin for the season opener in 2016 and 2019.

Tentative 2015 schedule: Texas, at Michigan, at Purdue, UMass, Navy, USC, Wake Forest, at Pittsburgh, Syracuse, at Stanford, at Boston College.

2016

The Irish have 11 games tentatively set for 2016. Four of those are ACC foes: vs. Miami, FL (Oct. 8), vs. Pittsburgh (Oct. 29), vs. Boston College (date TBA), and vs. Syracuse (at East Rutherford, NJ). One more ACC game is needed, but three of the currently scheduled opponents are also on the schedule in 2015 and two of them are also on for 2014.

Other than Navy, every opponent in 2016 is from a BCS conference. If a game is to be postponed from the 2016 slate, look for it to be Purdue, Michigan, or Michigan State.

Tentative 2016 schedule: at Texas, Michigan, Stanford, at Michigan State, Miami (FL), Navy (site TBA), Pittsburgh, at USC, Boston College, Purdue, Syracuse (at NJ).

2017

Notre Dame only has two ACC teams scheduled in 2017 (Miami and Syracuse) and nine games overall. That gives them three open spots for ACC teams, although the rotation could bump Miami and/or Syracuse.

Tentative 2017 schedule: Temple, Arizona State, Syracuse, at Miami (FL), at Michigan, Michigan State, Navy, at Purdue, at Stanford.

2018

Boston College is the only ACC team on the schedule in 2018. With five other games scheduled, the Irish have plenty of scheduling flexibility this season.

Tentative 2018 schedule: Purdue, Boston College, at Michigan State, Navy (site TBA), at Northwestern, Stanford.

2019

The Irish also have only six games currently slated for 2019. Again, Boston College is the lone ACC team. As we get this far out into Notre Dame’s schedule, it’s hard to predict which ACC teams they will play.

Tentative 2019 schedule: at Texas, at Purdue, at Boston College, at Michigan State, Navy, at Stanford.

Other Notre Dame Scheduling Notes

  • Boston College – As previously mentioned, the ACC wants Notre Dame to play each conference member every three years. That means the “Holy War” will go on, just not on an annual basis.
  • BYU – Notre Dame and BYU signed a contract to play six games through the 2020 season. The first is slated for Oct. 20, 2012 and the second for Nov. 23, 2013. That leaves four games to play between 2014 and 2020, unless the contract is canceled or modified. BYU beat writer Jay Drew said “Don’t be surprised if Notre Dame tries to get out of the four final games of the deal.”
  • Michigan – The Michigan-Notre Dame series is contracted through the 2031 season, with a break in 2018 and 2019. Expect this series to continue with some possible breaks.
  • Michigan State – The Spartans are also contracted to play the Irish through 2031. Like the Michigan series, it will likely continue but could see a break when there’s a scheduling conflict.
  • Navy – Irish athletic director Jack Swarbrick said Wednesday that “…the tradition of playing Navy has very deep and important roots for the university.” Expect the Irish and Midshipmen to continue playing annually.
  • Purdue – As ESPN indicates, this could be one of the first opponents to be canceled. Purdue is currently scheduled through 2014
  • Stanford – “We’re still going to be in California every year and we’re still going to find a way to get into the Southwest” Swarbrick said on Wednesday. Expect the Irish to keep playing Stanford home-and-home.
  • USC – Since Notre Dame wants to be in California every year, they will continue to play USC.

Updates:

  • The South Bend Tribune reports that Notre Dame will play three ACC home games in 2014 and two on the road. In 2015, the Irish will play two at home and three on the road. Thiswill likely be the rotation going forward (Even years: 3 home, 2 away; Odd years: 2 home, 3 away).
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