Can the CFB Playoff committee substantiate its decision to move TCU ahead of Florida State in its latest rankings?
Seriously, how does an unblemished Seminole team, fresh off beating SEC’s Florida, lose traction to a team that is one 24-point letdown short of perfection?
If schedule strength is behind the committee’s decision, then it’s time to take an objective look back at who each of the six contenders played to get this close to the bracket.
Coming into the season, here’s how Phil Steele had the six ranked in strength of schedule: No. 36 Ohio State, No. 40 TCU, No. 46 Florida State, No. 48 Oregon, No. 57 Baylor and No. 61 Alabama.
Speed ahead to Week 15—when all that’s remaining are the conference title games and the final weekend of Big 12 play—and we can replace predictions for known fact. In other words, we know which schedule was the most difficult, because all but 15 of the games have already been played.
Instead of counting the number of winning teams from last year a team will play, now we can count the number of bowl-eligible teams from this season that they already did play.
When looking back, it’s key to rate opponents on where they are now, at the end of the regular season, as opposed to where they were when a contender played them. For instance, when Florida State played Notre Dame on Oct. 18, the Irish were 6-1 and ranked No. 5. Five games and one month later, Notre Dame has dropped to 7-5 and out of the rankings.
So, instead of crediting the Seminoles for beating a top-ranked team, it’s more accurate to say they beat a team that’s just bowl eligible.
The other consideration is limiting the discussion to power-five opponents. Though Ohio State’s win over Kent State and Baylor’s victory over Buffalo count as full-fledged wins, they aren’t the same thing as Alabama besting West Virginia and Oregon dropping Michigan State. Leaving non-power games out of the equation gets us closer to an apples-to-apples comparison.
Here are the six contenders ranked by schedule strength in hindsight.
6. Baylor (CFB Ranking No. 6)
Power-Five Opponents: 8
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 38-42 (47.5%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 3
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 2
Record of Power-Five Loss: 7-5 (58.3%)
Remaining Opponent: No. 9 Kansas State (9-2)
Four things kill Baylor: First, it didn’t play a power-five team out of conference, limiting its non-Big 12 action to SMU, Buffalo and FCS Northwestern State. Next up, it’s got the fewest wins over teams that finished the season bowl eligible: Texas, TCU and Oklahoma. This makes it no surprise that it is the only contender with a losing record among its combined power-five wins. Finally, the Bears’ loss came against 7-5 West Virginia, a solid squad but still the weakest defeat among the top six with the exception of Ohio State, which lost to 6-6 Virginia Tech.
5. Ohio State (CFB Playoff Ranking No. 5)
Power-Five Opponents: 9
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 53-45 (54%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 6
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 1
Record of Power-Five Loss: 6-6 (50%)
Remaining Opponent: No. 13 Wisconsin (10-2)
What hurts Ohio State is that it only played one opponent that is still ranked, No. 8 Michigan State. Beyond that, the Buckeyes have the worst loss, dropping an early game to Virginia Tech, a .500, barely bowl-eligible team that lost 6-3 to Wake Forest in double overtime.
T3. TCU (CFB Playoff Ranking No. 3)
Power-Five Opponents: 9
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 50-43 (53.8%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 5
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 2
Record of Power-Five Loss: 10-1 (90.9%)
Remaining Opponent: Iowa State (2-9)
TCU finishes in the middle of the road in each category with the exception of its loss, the only defeat to a one-loss contender among the top six. It’s the highest quality loss among the contenders. But, ironically, the head-to-head loss to Baylor is also the biggest cause for concern for the Frogs: How can they be ranked ahead of a team they lost to?
T3. Oregon (CFB Playoff Ranking No. 2)
Power-Five Opponents: 10
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 57-52 (52.3%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 5
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 3
Record of Power-Five Loss: 10-2 (83.3%)
Remaining Opponent: No. 7 Arizona (10-2)
Only Florida State has played more power-five teams among the contenders than Oregon did this season. What keeps the Ducks out of the top two is the combined record of the power-five teams they beat, a mark that’s fourth out of the top six.
2. Florida State (CFB Ranking No. 4)
Power-Five Opponents: 11
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 67-63 (51.5%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 7
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 2
Record of Power-Five Loss: N/A
Remaining Opponent: No. 11 Georgia Tech (10-2)
With 11 wins against power-fives, including non-ACC games with Oklahoma State, Notre Dame and Florida, the Seminoles are a hard sell at No. 2. That said, three key factors prevent FSU from leap-frogging Alabama: One fewer win over a bowl-eligible team, one fewer opponent that is still ranked and a 10-percent swing in the combined winning percentage of power-five foes.
1. Alabama (CFB Playoff Ranking No. 1)
Power-Five Opponents: 9
Combined Record of Power-Five Wins: 58-37 (61%)
Number of Bowl-Eligible, Power-Five Teams Beaten: 8
Opponents Beaten that are Still Ranked: 3
Record of Power-Five Loss: 9-3 (75%)
Remaining Opponent: No. 16 Missouri (10-2)
The Crimson Tide are No. 1 because they played the best combined group of power-five teams. Alabama played the most bowl-eligible opponents, the most teams that are still ranked (tied with Oregon) and the group of power-fives with the best win/loss record. Though its defeat came to three-loss Ole Miss, the Rebels got dropped by three still-ranked teams who combined for a 26-10 mark in 2014.
What Does it Mean?
Using this objective approach, it’s clear that Florida State’s schedule is under-appreciated. The Seminoles played two more power-five games and two more bowl-eligible teams than did TCU.
If you’re thinking its how the Seminoles played as opposed to who they played, you may be on to something.
Here’s the average margin of victory each contender achieved in its power-five wins: TCU 22.4, Oregon 21.7, Baylor 21, Ohio State 20, Alabama 16 and Florida State 13.9
Though these stats ooze with meaning, is it any coincidence that Alabama and Florida State have the lowest margin of victory and played the highest quality group of opponents?
No matter how you slice it, the Seminoles deserve more, not because we like them, but because they’ve won 12 games—11 against power-five teams and seven against teams that are bowl eligible.
While FSU shouldn’t be No. 1, No. 4 isn’t an accurate interpretation of what they’ve achieved this season.
What should, in a perfect world, balance the scales is this weekend’s ACC title game, when Florida State will square off with No. 11 Georgia Tech for its 13th win of the season.
How does this compare with TCU? Well, the Horned Frogs will compete (at home) for their 11th win (which FSU earned two weeks ago vs. Boston College) this Saturday against 2-9 Iowa State.
It’s an extra game against a top-ranked opponent that TCU can’t compete with—even if the Frogs stomp the Cyclones and the Noles edge the Yellow Jackets by a field goal.