Before this week’s AP poll, only one two-loss team had made it into the rankings this season, Stanford, who at 3-2 earned enough votes last week to be No. 25.
This week, Stanford is joined in the AP by fellow two-loss teams Texas A&M, USC and Clemson. Take a look at how each got to the midway point of the season:
No. 24 Clemson (4-2)
Wins: FCS South Carolina State, North Carolina, NC State, Louisville
Losses: No. 12 Georgia, No. 1 Florida State
W/L teams beaten: 15-12
W/L teams lost to: 11-1
No. 23 Stanford (4-2)
Wins: FCS UC Davis, Army, Washington, Washington State
Losses: No. 14 USC, No. 9 Notre Dame
W/L teams beaten: 10-15
W/L teams lost to: 10-2
No. 22 USC (4-2)
Wins: Fresno State, No. 13 Stanford, Oregon State, No. 10 Arizona
Losses: Boston College, Arizona State
W/L teams beaten: 16-8
W/L teams lost to: 8-3
No. 21 Texas A&M (5-2)
Wins: No. 9 South Carolina, FCS Lamar, Rice, SMU
Losses: No. 12 Mississippi State, No. 3 Ole Miss
W/L teams beaten: 10-14
W/L teams lost to: 12-0
What sets Stanford and Texas A&M apart is that their collective wins have come against teams that haven’t combined for a winning record in 2014.
In fact, each has only a single victory over a team with a winning record: Stanford bested 5-1 Washington and Texas A&M beat 4-3 FCS Lamar.
So, while all of these programs can claim “quality” losses, half can’t declare more than one win against a team that is over the .500 mark.
To compare, take a look at the 10 teams with fewer than two losses that aren’t in the rankings:
Duke (5-1) (45 points in current AP, technically No. 28)
Wins: FCS Elon, Troy, Kansas, Tulane, No. 22 Georgia Tech
Loss: Miami (Fla.)
W/L teams beaten: 11-19
W/L team lost to: 4-3
Minnesota (5-1) (36 points in current AP, technically No. 29)
Wins: FCS Eastern Illinois, Middle Tennessee, San Jose State, Michigan, Northwestern
Loss: TCU
W/L teams beaten: 13-18
W/L team lost to: 4-1
Kentucky (5-1)(36 points in current AP, technically No. 30)
Wins: FCS UT Martin, Ohio, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, ULM
Loss: Florida
W/L teams beaten: 13-20
W/L team lost to: 3-2
Washington (5-1)(22 points in current AP, technically No. 32)
Wins: Hawaii, FCS Eastern Washington, Illinois, Georgia State, Cal
Loss: No. 16 Stanford
W/L teams beaten: 16-16
W/L team lost to: 4-2
Georgia Tech (5-1)(11 points in current AP, technically No. 33)
Wins: FCS Wofford, Tulane, Georgia Southern, Virginia Tech, Miami (Fla.)
Loss: Duke
W/L teams beaten: 18-14
W/L team lost to: 5-1
Rutgers (5-1)(Seven points in current AP, technically No. 36)
Wins: Washington State, FCS Howard, Navy, Tulane, Michigan
Loss: Penn State
W/L teams beaten: 11-23
W/L team lost to: 4-2
Iowa (5-1) (Six points in current AP, technically No. 37)
Wins: FCS Northern Iowa, Ball State, Pitt, Purdue, Indiana
Loss: Iowa State
W/L teams beaten: 13-18
W/L team lost to: 2-4
Colorado State (5-1)(Three points in current AP, technically No. 39)
Wins: Colorado, FCS UC Davis, Boston College, Tulsa, Nevada
Loss: Boise State
W/L teams beaten: 11-19
W/L teams lost to: 4-2
Temple (4-1) (Zero points in current AP)
Wins: Vanderbilt, FCS Delaware State, UConn, Tulsa
Loss: Navy
W/L teams beaten: 6-20
W/L teams lost to: 3-4
Oregon State (4-1) (Zero points in current AP)
Wins: FCS Portland State, Hawaii, San Diego State, Colorado
Loss: No. 18 USC
W/L teams beaten: 9-15
W/L teams lost to: 4-2
The two unranked, one-loss programs with the best argument for replacing Texas A&M and Stanford in the polls are Georgia Tech and Washington.
The Yellow Jackets played winning opponents each of the last three weeks: Virginia Tech (5-2), Miami, Fla. (4-2) and Duke (5-1). They were ranked No. 22 in last week’s poll—when they were 5-0—but dropped out this week after losing 31-25 to Duke, a program that voters refuse to take seriously no matter how many games it wins.
Washington’s case is less compelling, with victories over FCS Eastern Washington (6-1) and Cal (4-2). We’ll find out soon if the Huskies really are for real, and they’ll be rewarded handsomely if they can knock off No. 9 Oregon this Saturday.
The next tier consists of a trio of teams who have each beaten one winning team this season: Duke knocked off 5-1 Georgia Tech last Saturday, Minnesota beat 4-3 Middle Tennessee in Week 2 and Colorado State bested 4-2 Boston College in Week 5.
A rung below that are Kentucky, Rutgers, Iowa, Temple and Oregon State, all who have only played one winning team this season and all who lost that game.
What’s interesting about Kentucky is that—like Texas A&M—it’s best win this season came over South Carolina. The only difference is timing, the Aggies played the Gamecocks the first game of the season, when they were ranked No. 9, while the Wildcats beat them in Week 6, when they were officially out of the rankings.
Other than that, the balance of the victories for both teams are underwhelming: A&M beat FCS Lamar, Rice, SMU and Arkansas, while Kentucky bested FCS UT Martin, Ohio and Vandy.
Both also share “quality” losses — the Aggies to top-ranked Ole Miss and Mississippi State and Kentucky to Florida in Gainesville, where the Cats haven’t won since 1979.
The comparison illustrates the polls’ over-reliance on the preseason Top 25, a mentality that rewards the early favorites and costs those who must scrap their way into the rankings.
That’s especially true for programs like Kentucky, Minnesota and Duke, all counted as perennial strugglers in power conferences.
Do you think the AP is getting it right?
Though a valid argument could be made either way, 6-0 Marshall climbing into the rankings this week at No. 25—the Herd’s first appearance in the polls since 2002— reminds us that eventually every program will be rewarded if they can accumulate enough wins.