With Texas and Oklahoma presumably off to the golden streets of the SEC – where stacks of cash rain from the sky but wins are difficult to find – the remaining eight members of the Big 12 are in a precarious position.
Will each be auctioned off to the highest bidder from the remaining Power 5 leagues and/or the AAC and MWC – or instead will they hunker down, huddle together, and weather the storm – retaining their union by adding new members?
Or will one of the programs go all “BYU” and bravely declare its independence?
While the first option seems the most likely – each of the eight marketing its wares to potential suitors – what if they instead attempt to keep the sinking ship afloat and remain a Power-grade entity?
Though programs such as Cincinnati, Houston, UCF, BYU, Boise State and SMU might be worthy partners and solid future members of a new-look Big 12, that approach – selecting the very best members from the Group of 5 teams – would only extend, perhaps ever-so-briefly, the life of what is a dying league.
This truth has nothing to do with the viability of each of the programs listed. Each (and others not mentioned here) could compete in a Power 5 conference, and each would bring their own unique set of assets to the table. It would also be intriguing to see how each performed up top (a la Utah).
The issue isn’t how “good” they are or how “worthy” they might be: the issue is anchoring the Big 12 in a way that makes it seem like it’s untouchable. So that the thought of dissolving it would seem as ridiculous as disbanding the Big Ten.
The only way to do that is to add two bluebloods back in.
Think about it this way – the Big 12 is a mall that opened in 1995 with all the most fashionable, desirable stores. Everyone lined up to go, every parking space was filled, and you couldn’t even walk through the throng of eager shoppers in the food court to get a corndog. It was like a glistening city on a hill.
Then, suddenly, Von Maur (aka Nebraska) and Lord & Taylor (aka Colorado) pulled out after the 2010 season and moved their locations respectively to the Big Ten’s mall north of town and the Pac-12’s shopping center due west. While the Big 12 (now Big 10, though the mall never rebranded) certainly missed the Cornhuskers’ and Buffaloes’ ability to attract customers (aka fans/ TV viewers) the slightly downsized league (now division-less) went on.
A mere two years later, in 2012, things got worse when two of the Big 12 mall’s bigger – though not biggest tenants – pulled up stakes and relocated to the glitzy SEC mall southeast of the city center: Dillard’s (aka Texas A&M) and Belk (aka Missouri).
While the high rents and stiffer competition made it more difficult for the Aggies and Tigers to make money, there was a lot more of it to go around.
This two-store exodus finally compelled the Big 12’s mall management to add a pair of retail partners, that as opposed to just boarding up the entrance and acting like it never happened (a la Nebraska’s exit). Belk (TCU) and JC Penney (West Virginia) set up shop in 2012 filling the empty spaces left behind by A&M and Mizzou.
Was it an apples-to-apples exchange? Not exactly, but no one seemed to care because the Big 12 mall was still the only local center to have Macy’s (Oklahoma) and Nordstrom’s (Texas).
What the Big 12 mall didn’t do from 2012 to 2020 was to continue to look for new full and junior anchors to facilitate its growth in both customer base and revenue. So, when the SEC mall (the most lucrative center in the nation) built two new gleaming anchor spots, Macy’s (Oklahoma, a well-appointed, successful store that welcomed all) and Nordstrom’s (Texas, a bougie store that sells the same merchandise for higher prices but still struggles with its bottom line) were all in.
Because…seriously…why would the Sooners and Longhorns – Macy’s and Nordstrom’s for the love of all that is right in the world – want to be part of a mall that was potentially dying while others were thriving?
In as much as this analogy explains what’s happened with the Big 12, it also points to what the remaining eight stores need to do to avoid either moving to another location or watching their mall die a slow, painful, death.
Think about it – UCF, Cincinnati, Boise State, Houston, SMU, and BYU are all quality stores that people happily frequent, but they’re more regionally orientated and simply don’t draw the number of customers as would a corporate national chain.
And we’re no longer living in a “mom-and-pop” retail culture. It’s a high stakes financial game that isn’t hyper-focused on tradition or customer service.
Yes friend, lots of folks are going out of business and it’s all about the Benjamins.
It amounts to only one way for the Big 12 mall if it wants to avoid weeds growing in its cracked parking lot and a 24-hour Fitness moving into its former Macy’s – add major anchor stores. Pluck them – as other shopping centers have done successfully – from the other big malls.
Though stealing Arizona and Arizona State from the Pac-12 mall is a good mid-level move, the Big 12 must couple that type of grab with a bigger steal. It must consider going after lead-stores rather than partner stores. It’s a coup that must be as historic as Texas and Oklahoma leaving in the first place.
The Big 12 must shock the world by stealing the likes of a USC and UCLA or a Clemson and Florida State.
And if you think that sounds ridiculous (because it kind of does) you get the point – the Big 12 pulling itself out of a tailspin, long-term, post Texas and Oklahoma – would be a miracle.
View Comments (37)
XD
Invite Houston and SMU back (the old SWC), makes good sense regarding geography, and those two schools will recruit more four star kids.
I would assume no one is leaving another P5 conference (including BYU, ND) to join the Big 12.
If I was the Big12 I'd invite Cincy, Houston, Memphis, Boise ASAP.
If any of those decline you can invite SMU, UCF (distance might be the only reason not to invite off the bat), Colorado State.
They should be proactive instead of waiting for the dust to settle.
It'll probably just be a temporary fix but better than doing nothing.
The American and the remains of the XII will merge. However, the PAC might swipe TCU, Tech, and Ok State... And take BYU to give it four private colleges total... PAC-16. (Utah & BYU go to the North Division).
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I expect the B1G to do nothing. Iowa State, maybe. Kansas? Unlikely... Trade with the SEC to get Mizzou?
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Sorry Baylor. Sorry WVU.
I can see BIG going for Kansas. Then make a push for ND/ACC team.
If they don't get any of those maybe they'll settle for Iowa State. Iowa State just doesn't move the needle for athletics and they already have the small Iowa market.
Emerging power NoDak State can save the day for the Big 12.
There is no way to "Save The Big 12" in the sense implied by the title of this article. What is happening to the Big 12 right now is what happened to the Big East from 2003 to 2005 and again from 2010 to 2013. The BCS 6 became the Power 5, and will soon become the Dominant 4, who will each move to 16 schools (ACC may wait to pull trigger). The Big 12 can only backfill and await their eventual demotion.
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I can see the dominoes falling a bit differently from most of you. Let's start with how the Big Ten responds. We know news has leaked that Kansas has approached the Big Ten. I understand people saying the Big Ten should grab an ACC school for #16, but the ACC has a long-term grant-of-rights in place, so taking ACC schools might need to wait until the next round of expansion a few years down the road.
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What if, instead, the Big Ten makes a move to bring in the biggest rival of Kansas, an opponent they should have never been separated from, and a school that looks and feels like a Big Ten school. I'm talking about Missouri. The SEC has no grant-of-rights or exit fee, and while Missouri is okay there, they look and feel out of place. Reuniting with Kansas and switching to the Big Ten would be a game changer.
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The combination of Kansas and Missouri locks up both the Kansas City and St. Louis markets for the Big Ten, rekindles old rivalries for Nebraska, and adds new natural rivalries for Iowa. Big Ten basketball would remain on par with ACC basketball as the best in the nation year in and year out. I know Kansas and Missouri don't do much for football, but the Big Ten has other schools to do the lifting in that sport.
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BIG TEN WEST
• Kansas / Missouri
• Nebraska / Iowa
• Minnesota / Wisconsin
• Northwestern / Illinois
BIG TEN EAST
• Purdue / Indiana
• Michigan / Michigan State
• Ohio State / Penn State
• Rutgers / Maryland
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Picking up MIssouri from the SEC also opens the door for Oklahoma State to follow Texas and Oklahoma into the SEC as school #16 with no real damage done. Although the SEC would be annoyed about losing Missouri to the Big Ten, it's not like they really care about Missouri, and both conferences would benefit from the switch anyway, so no actual harm, no actual foul. Easiest way to solve that dilemma.
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SEC WEST
• Oklahoma / Oklahoma State
• Texas / Texas A&M
• Arkansas / LSU
• Mississippi / Mississippi State
SEC EAST
• Alabama / Auburn
• Florida / Georgia
• South Carolina / Tennessee
• Vanderbilt / Kentucky
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Now we turn to the Pac-12. Everybody knows about their television network problems, but they need to be careful about expanding too far east, at the risk of becoming too unwieldy. I think taking Texas Tech is a no brainer, and my unconventional recommendation would be to add New Mexico to fill the geographical hole and bring a new state into the footprint. Then tack on Nevada and UNLV to get to 16.
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I would not venture too far into Texas, meaning east of Interstate 35, because the Pac-16 would not be able to make a dent in the dominance of the SEC with Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma State in the fold. By focusing on Texas Tech and doing everything to make them happy, however, the western side of the state could be, a bit slowly, transformed into Pac-16 territory with the passage of time.
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PAC-16 NORTH
• Washington / Washington State
• Oregon / Oregon State
• Stanford / Cal
• Nevada / UNLV
PAC-16 SOUTH
• USC / UCLA
• Arizona / Arizona State
• Utah / Colorado
• New Mexico / Texas Tech
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I don't think the ACC will make a move unless and until Notre Dame decides to join in football. Should the ACC finally convince the Fighting Irish to give up their long-cherished independence, then they can add #16 from among the group of West Virginia, Cincinnati, Temple, UConn, and any lesser leftovers they might like for some reason or another. In the meantime, the rest of the Big 12 will be forced to rebuild.
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Remaining in the Big 12 after these moves are West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State, TCU, and Baylor. Cincinnati is a no-brainer addition to help the travel issues of the Mountaineers. Houston is the best remaining school in Texas. SMU adds a fourth Texas member and old rival. Memphis is the next best school and should be #9 with Tulane tagging along as #10 (UCF and USF can be added to reach 12).
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BIG 12 AFTER TAKING REPLACEMENTS FROM AAC
• Iowa State / Kansas State
• TCU / SMU
• Baylor / Houston
• West Virginia / Cincinnati
• Memphis / Tulane
• [Possibly add UCF / USF for 12 and create divisions]
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The AAC would be left with Temple, East Carolina, and Tulsa as full members, possibly UCF and USF depending on whether the Big 12 wants to return to 10 or expand all the way to 12, plus Navy in football-only along with Wichita State in basketball and everything else. My recommendation would be to focus on building an East Coast league while telling Tulsa and WSU / Navy they can decide to stay or leave.
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AAC NORTH AFTER SWITCHING FOCUS TO EAST
• UMass / Navy FB + Wichita State BB (or UConn FB + Rhode Island BB)
• Buffalo / Temple
• James Madison / Old Dominion
AAC SOUTH AFTER SWITCHING FOCUS TO EAST
• East Carolina / Charlotte
• Georgia State / Tulsa (or Coastal Carolina)
• UCF / USF (or FAU / FIU depending on whether Big 12 wants 10 or 12)
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CUSA and the SBC would then be left to reorganize themselves along better geographical lines. I know BYU gets mentioned a lot and has a huge fanbase, but also adds a lot of travel miles, cultural baggage, and extra demands that the Big 12 can really do without. In other words, plenty of pluses, but a lot of minuses as well. My belief is that the scenarios I am proposing can work out better over the long haul.
Your thoughts on Kansas and Missouri to the B1G are interesting. The SEC should fill the Missouri vacancy with (either) N. C. State (or Virginia Tech). (While there are currently no actual SEC members in the state of North Carolina, the SEC Network headquarters are actually in North Carolina.) The ACC could then add West Virginia. The 6 remnants from the Big 12 along with Arizona and Arizona State become the Cowboy division to a Surfer division (UCLA, USC, Cal. Stanford, WSU, U-Dub, Oregon and Oregon State) of the PAC-16.
et voilà
This actually makes more sense than anything I've read. Not sure if Mizzou has the self-esteem to do it, but it would absolutely make sense for them. And keep them distanced from the albatross that is Texas.
PAC12 knows it can't sit on its heels. It needs to expand meaningfully into the Central Time Zone to be relevant on TV sets, with voters, in recruiting. New commissioner comes from digital strategy and distribution working for national brands like MGM, NBCUniversal, MLB. He knows he has to take the PAC12 eastward.
If they grab 2 schools, I think they'll lean into Texas Tech (huge enrollment, tons of alumni in DFW) and OKST (assuming things don't play out as you describe above).
If they want 4, they might pick 2 of Baylor, Houston and TCU to round out the Mountain & Prairie Division. There are plusses and minuses to all 3: Baylor and TCU's religious affiliations may turn off the more progressive west coast school presidents (though TCU has been gradually secularizing); all 3 are private with modest enrollments compared to the average PAC12 school. On the other hand, TCU and Houston are in mega TV markets and in the thick of fertile recruiting territory. All 3 have been successful in football, 2 of the 3 in basketball (and TCU is on the rise), plus the occasional olympic sport (which the PAC12 loves). All 3 have nationally ranked undergrad and graduate programs.
Have to say, New Mexico, Nevada and UNLV are not getting a moment's consideration from the PAC12. Their athletic budgets are minuscule and they don't bring anything the league doesn't already have. If anything I could see Boise State - strong football, evolving basketball, growing population - and BYU, who have alumni EVERYWHERE - being invited, but only if the BIG Ten gets to the Texas schools first, and even then only if Kviatkoff can get the existing Presidents to recognize the disastrous nature of maintaining the status quo.
All in all, I don't think we're heading for 4 16-team leagues. I'm sure West Virginia (ACC), Oklahoma State (PAC/BIG/SEC) and Texas Tech (PAC) will be picked up, somewhat confident Baylor and Kansas will find a home, and very iffy about TCU. I just don't see how Iowa State or K State find a home in a new Power 4 structure.
Hi Spencer. The issue with NC State, Virginia Tech, or any school in the ACC, is that their Grant of Rights doesn't expire until 2036, and there is too much money at stake for schools to risk losing a court case over trying to break the agreement. Texas and Oklahoma are even saying right now that they will stay in the Big 12 until their Grant of Rights expires in 2025. I do agree that the SEC should eventually go after some ACC schools as part of a future expansion to 20 or 24, but not until a decade from now, when the ACC Grant of Rights is closer to expiring.
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As for the ACC, I doubt that they will add a 16th team unless and until Notre Dame joins in football, but maybe West Virginia can propose joining the ACC as #16 in basketball and minor sports, while technically going independent in football. The ACC could, however, give West Virginia bowl access and a certain amount of games every year, maybe even as many as seven, as well as a signed agreement that they will be the 16th football team if and when Notre Dame joins as #15. It might sound desperate, but honestly, West Virginia will soon be desperate.
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Hi Josh. I don't have any inside information, but I'm sure Missouri doesn't really want to be in another conference with Texas any more than A&M wants that impending reunion, as both of those schools and Arkansas know very well how destructive Texas can be to conferences. They played a major role in ending the SWC, almost caused the Big 12 to blow up a decade ago, and are now finishing that job in cahoots with Oklahoma. Missouri originally wanted to join the Big Ten when Nebraska entered and going in alongside Kansas would be perfect for them.
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Hi Colin. The issue with Army, Navy, and Air Force is that they might be able to compete in football in a weakened Big 12, but they won't be able to keep up in basketball or many of the minor sports over the long haul, and the travel would be a nightmare. Unlike the football factories, the service academies exist first and foremost to educate future military leaders, not train NFL prospects. There is a reason Navy only plays football in the AAC, but keeps their other sports in the Patriot League along with Army, and there is no such local option for Air Force.
bro there is no way in hell that "New Mexico, Nevada, or UNLV. In anyway a better fit for Pac12/Pac16" -Before Fresno State on any level not to mention 2 others way better then all 3 also!!! "Boise State, and San Diego State. Along side Fresno State, Now Pac16 has the West Coast Power... Yadadamean!!!
Expansion from the Pac-12 to the Pac-16 will be about adding new markets, new states, and many more television viewers for the Pac-12 Network. The Pac-12 already has four California schools. Expanding with Fresno State and San Diego State would not add anything new to the league, other than pulling in the die-hard fans of those two schools, many of whom are already casual Pac-12 fans anyway. Then there is the academic side of things. Cal and UCLA do not want to share a conference with any Cal State schools, and you can rest assured that Stanford and USC, as well as most of the rest of the Pac-12, right or wrong, will back them up on that sentiment.
As it is, UNLV would be a hard sell for the Pac-12, but they could find themselves needing direct access to the Las Vegas market, rather than just "claiming" the market, to prop up the Pac-12 Network. Boise State is considered a "truck driving school" by academic snobs throughout the Pac-12. You think UNLV would be a hard sell? Boise State would be an impossibe sell. This is about more than just football, and I don't know why people constantly fail to see that these are still universities, and not professional football teams. As for New Mexico, they would fill a geographical hole, and serve as the flagship university of a state the Pac-12 really does not control yet.
Army + Navy + Air Force + Cincinnati.
First of all, I will say I am am Alabama Crimson Tide fan and a college football fan.
If Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 for the SEC, I would like to see Alabama, Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M leave the SEC for the Big 12. All of the recent moves of a team from one conference to another has not bee for the good of college football. These moves are solely driven by GREED!
aggy is KMart. And, as Rainman said, KMart sucks.
Cease and desist letter today should throw monkey wrench into Sooner and Longturd plans!