While it’s a widely held belief that teams are more likely to win when playing at home, what’s less available is actual mathematical data to support the claim.
The most accurate way to quantify “advantage” is to calculate how much better a team performed at home vs. their record on the road. The method is superior to simply identifying which teams are the most successful at home because it tells us more.
To illustrate, no team has had more success at home since 2006 than Boise State. The Broncos went 65-4 (94.2%) at Albertson’s Stadium – better than Ohio State (72-7 or 91.1%) and Oklahoma (60-7 or 89.6%).
The rest of the story is that Boise State went 51-13 (79.7%) on the road during the same span. It means it was only 14.5% better at home than away. Or – the Broncos numerical home-field advantage is 14.5%.
It earns BSU a No. 101 rank among the 119 programs that played at the FBS level each season between 2006-16. It amounts to 100 FBS teams enjoying a bigger advantage at home than the Broncos.
Compare that to BYU, which ranks No. 6 nationally at home since 2006. The Cougars were 58-9 (86.6%) at Lavell Edwards vs. 36-25 (59%) on the road. That’s a home field advantage of 27.6% – almost double Boise State’s and No. 29 in the nation.
Even though they shared similar success at home as did the Broncos, BYU was 13.1% more likely to win on their own field vs. away than Boise State.
The Numbers
Across the entire FBS, on average, teams had a 20.3% better record at home (62.8%) than on the road (42.5%) from 2006-16.
The school with the biggest gap between performance at home vs. away was Arkansas State. The Red Wolves went 48-14 (77.4%) at Centennial Bank Stadium vs. 27-44 (38%) on the road. It amounts to a 39.4% home-field advantage.
The school with the smallest gap between home/road performance is Duke. The Blue Devils went 29-44 (39.7%) at Wallace Wade vs. 23-27 (38.3%) away. They were only 1.4% more successful at home.
Take a look at the results by conference.
Power 5
ACC
Conference Average: 16.3% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Virginia – 24.7% advantage at home
37-38 (49.3%) at home vs. 14-43 (24.6%) away
Smallest Advantage: Duke – 1.4% advantage at home
29-44 (39.7%) vs. 23-27 (38.3%)
BIG 12
Conference Average: 19.6% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Kansas – 35.9%
35-37 (48.6%) at home vs. 7-48 (12.7%) away
Smallest Advantage: Texas – 4.8%
47-22 (68.1%) home vs. 31-18 (63.3%) away
BIG TEN
Conference Average: 18.2% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Michigan – 26.8%
59-21 (73.8%) home vs. 24-27 (47%) away
Smallest Advantage: Northwestern – 2.1%
42-31 (57.5%) home vs. 31-25 (55.4%) away
PAC-12
Conference Average: 20.9% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: California – 32.4%
44-26 (62.9%) home vs. 18-41 (30.5%) away
Smallest Advantage: Washington State – 11.3%
29-40 (42%) home vs. 19-43 (30.7%) away
SEC
Conference Average: 21.7% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Tennessee – 36.4%
54-25 (68.4%) home vs. 16-34 (32%) away
Smallest Advantage: Georgia – 9%
56-16 (77.8%) home vs. 33-15 (68.8%) away
Non-Power Conferences
AMERICAN
Conference Average: 19.8% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Connecticut – 29.4%
42-30 (58.3%) home vs. 17-42 (28.9%) away
Smallest Advantage: USF – 10.3%
41-30 (57.8%) home vs. 29-32 (47.5%) away
C-USA
Conference Average: 23.5% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Marshall – 38.8%
46-20 (69.7%) home vs. 21-47 (30.9%) away
Smallest Advantage: Florida International – 11.1%
23-40 (36.5%) home vs. 17-50 (25.4%) away
MAC
Conference Average: 16.9% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Akron – 17.1%
25-37 (40.3%) home vs. 16-53 (23.2%) away
Smallest Advantage: Bowling Green – 2.8%
32-27 (54.2%) home vs. 36-34 (51.4%) away
MOUNTAIN WEST
Conference Average: 23.7% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Utah State – 34.9%
38-24 (61.3%) home vs. 19-53 (26.4%) away
Smallest Advantage: Boise State – 14.5%
65-4 (94.2%) home vs. 51-13 (79.7%) away
SUN BELT
Conference Average: 26% advantage at home
Biggest Advantage: Arkansas State – 39.4%
48-14 (77.4%) home vs. 27-44 (38%) away
Smallest Advantage: Louisiana-Lafayette – 17.4%
37-25 (59.7%) home vs. 30-41 (42.3%) away
Overall, the Sun Belt members combined to enjoy the biggest average home field advantage at 26%. Among the Power conferences the top dog is the SEC (21.7%), followed by the Pac-12 (20.9%) and the Big 12 (19.6%).
The league with the least advantage is the ACC at 16.3%, edging the MAC at 16.9%.
In case you’re wondering about independent schools other than BYU – Notre Dame was 18.9% more successful in South Bend over the last decade (No. 77 in the FBS) while Army posted a 20.4% advantage (No. 68) at West Point.
The most convincing number is 100. That’s the percentage of the 119 FBS schools that posted a better record at home from 2006-16 than they did on the road.
Historical data courtesy of Sports Reference-College Football