According to a June 14 article by ESPN’s Heather Dinich, Notre Dame’s status as an independent scheduler gives it a special pass with the CFB Playoff committee.
“Notre Dame continues to cling to its independence, and it should because of the freedom it has in creating schedules tailor-made to impress under the 13-member selection committee. Notre Dame isn’t stuck playing division cellar-dwellers every year. It’s not judged by how good any entire conference is from top to bottom. Notre Dame’s playoff worth is simply determined by who it schedules and who it beats. As long as Notre Dame continues to schedule aggressively, which it intends to, one loss likely won’t keep the Irish out of a semifinal unless there are several undefeated conference champs to consider.”
Though much of Dinich’s approach is logical, can the subjective term “aggressive scheduling” be quantified? In other words, how tough is Notre Dame’s schedule?
Take a look at Notre Dame’s 2016 slate vs. that of the top contenders from each of the Power Five conferences (according to ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25).
2016 Schedule: at Texas, Nevada, Michigan State, Duke, at Syracuse, at N.C. State, Stanford, Miami (Fla.), Navy (at Jacksonville, Fla.), Army (at San Antonio, Texas), Virginia Tech, at USC
Power Five Opponents: 9
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 3
FCS Opponents: 0
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 9
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 3
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 4
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 1
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 58.33%
2016 Schedule: USC (at Arlington, Texas), Western Kentucky, at Ole Miss, Kent State, Kentucky, at Arkansas, at Tennessee, Texas A&M, at LSU, Mississippi State, Chattanooga, Auburn
Power Five Opponents: 9
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 2
FCS Opponents: 1
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 9
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 2
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 5
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 2
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 65.4%
2016 Schedule: at Auburn, Troy, South Carolina State, at Georgia Tech, Louisville, at Boston College, N.C. State, at Florida State, Syracuse, Pitt, at Wake Forest, South Carolina
Power Five Opponents: 10
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 1
FCS Opponents: 1
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 5
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 1
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 2
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 1
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 43.8%
2016 Schedule: Hawaii, UCF, Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin, at Rutgers, Illinois, at Michigan State, Maryland, at Iowa, Indiana, at Ohio State
Power Five Opponents: 10
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 2
FCS Opponents: 0
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 5
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 4
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 3
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 1
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 50.65%
2016 Schedule: Houston (at NRG Stadium, Houston, Texas), Louisiana-Monroe, Ohio State, at TCU, Texas (at Dallas, Texas), Kansas State, at Texas Tech, Kansas, at Iowa State, Baylor, at West Virginia, Oklahoma State
Power Five Opponents: 10
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 2
FCS Opponents: 0
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 7
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 5
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 4
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 1
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 56.50%
2016 Schedule: Kansas State, USC, at UCLA, at Washington, Washington State, at Notre Dame, Colorado, at Arizona, Oregon State, at Oregon, at Cal, Rice
Power Five Opponents: 11
Non-Power FBS Opponents: 1
FCS Opponents: 0
Games vs. Teams with a Winning Record in 2015: 8
Games vs. Teams with Double-Digit Wins in 2015: 1
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 25: 5
Games vs. Teams Ranked in ESPN’s latest Way-Too-Early Top 10: 1
Combined 2015 Winning Percentage of all FBS Opponents: 53.54%
The Comparison
Notre Dame’s schedule is clearly more difficult in one key area—it is tied with Alabama for playing the most teams with a winning record in 2015 (9).
Though the Irish take pride in not scheduling FCS opponents, three of the five top teams compared here also don’t make dates with FCS schools. So, this isn’t as applause-worthy as advertised. Take a look at what Brian Kelly had to say in the Dinich article.
“I think my 12 stand up against another team’s 11 at any time, and I’m saying 11 because one of those games is really an effective bye week because it’s an [FCS] team…Then if they play a championship game, it’s my 12 against their 12, and then that’s where the committee will have to make a decision – my 12 against their 12.”
In our analysis, that’s simply not true. No matter what happens, Notre Dame will play nine Power opponents in 2016. Alabama and Clemson will also play nine, but add a tenth if they play in a conference title game. Oklahoma, the only team without a conference title opportunity, plays 10 Power teams regardless of what happens. That leaves Michigan and Stanford, both who (like the Sooners) won’t face an FCS opponent and play more Power opponents than the Irish. For the Wolverines, it’s 10 such games no matter what and 11 if they make the Big Ten title game. For the Cardinal, it’s a whopping 12 total if they ascend to the Pac-12 Championship.
So, FCS opponent or no FCS opponent, Kelly’s argument doesn’t hold much water. It’s more like his nine vs. the other guys nine, 10, 11 or even 12. Notre Dame represents the bare minimum.
The Irish finish in the middle of the pack in double-digit win opponents (3), topped by Michigan (4) and Oklahoma (5).
They can claim a tie for second place (with Oklahoma) in potential Top 25 opponents (4) and potential Top 10 foes (1). Keep in mind that every team compared has one Top 10 opponent except Alabama which has two.
The Irish also hold second place, again after the Crimson Tide, in combined 2015 winning percentage, edging Oklahoma by 1.83% and Stanford by 4.79%.
So, while Notre Dame’s schedule is difficult, it’s not significantly harder than what other top teams will face in 2016. In the case of programs who play in conferences that schedule nine league games and require a Power opponent in non-conference play (the Big 12, Big Ten and Pac-12), it’s one significant step easier.
Add in the Big Ten and Pac-12 championship games and it’s another step towards easier.
Even the SEC and ACC, with only eight league games plus a non-conference Power opponent, have an advantage over the Irish. This is true because any champion will have played 10 Power games vs. Notre Dame’s set nine.
And, at the end of the day, it’s the conference champions who will be compared with the Irish when the CFB committee meets to field its bracket.
If Notre Dame is in, two of the five title holders, who will have played more Power teams than the Irish, will be relegated to a meaningless bowl game.